How did Vietnam’s coffee exports perform in the first half of 2025?
In the first half of 2025, Vietnam’s coffee exports showed significant growth, with June 2025 alone seeing a remarkable year-on-year increase of 63.7% in volume and 103.8% in export value, reaching 123,623 metric tons. This strong performance was driven by robust demand from key markets like the European Union (EU) and the United States. The average export price also climbed to USD 5,220 per ton, a substantial increase from the previous year, which in turn provided strong support for domestic coffee prices.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, in the first half of 2025, Vietnam’s total coffee export volume is estimated at 953.9 thousand tons, generating approximately USD 5.45 billion in revenue. This represents an impressive 67.5% increase in value compared to the same period in 2024, despite a modest 5.3% growth in volume.
Despite the strong export performance, Vietnamese farmers are reportedly holding back significant stockpiles, with inventories estimated at only 10–15% of the current crop cycle. This tightening supply has helped stabilise domestic prices and provided a solid foundation supporting global Robusta coffee prices.
What is the coffee production outlook for Vietnam, considering weather and forecasts?
Vietnam’s coffee production outlook for the 2025/2026 crop year is currently influenced by a mix of weather conditions and conflicting forecasts. As July 2025 marks the peak of the rainy season in the Central Highlands, Vietnam’s primary Robusta-producing region, rainfall is anticipated to be 5% to 25% higher than the multi-year average, with temperatures between 25–31°C and humidity above 80%. These conditions are generally favorable for the upcoming coffee crop, potentially leading to a more positive harvest.
During the 2024/2025 crop year, Vietnam experienced adverse effects from climate change and El Niño, resulting in prolonged drought throughout 2024. This led to a 15–20% decline in yields, causing coffee export volumes to drop compared to previous seasons, despite an increase in export value due to higher prices.
Production Forecast
According to the USDA, Vietnam’s total coffee production for the 2025/2026 crop year is projected to reach 31 million bags, including 30 million bags of Robusta and 1 million bags of Arabica—a 6.9% increase over the previous season.
The USDA has maintained its estimate for the 2024/2025 crop year (Oct 2024 – Sep 2025) at 29 million bags (28 million Robusta). However, the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association (VICOFA) offers a more conservative outlook, estimating the 2024/2025 output at just 26.5 million bags, or potentially as low as 22 million bags.
This significant discrepancy between USDA and VICOFA projections is a key factor driving short-term volatility in Robusta prices. If VICOFA’s lower estimates prove more accurate, the tight supply in 2024/2025 will continue to support Robusta prices in the near term.
Detailed Price List By Day In Coffee Growing Regions In Vietnam From July 1st – 7th, 2025 (Unit Price: 1,000 VND)
Why are Robusta coffee futures declining globally?
Global Robusta coffee futures have been experiencing significant downward pressure from mid-June to early July 2025, extending a bearish trend that has lasted for several months. For instance, the July 2025 contract on ICE Futures Europe saw a sharp $500/ton correction, falling from approximately $4,121/ton on June 15 to $3,615/ton by July 3. The most notable decline occurred around June 17, when prices plummeted nearly $300/ton, pushing Robusta futures to their lowest point in over 15 months, primarily due to an improving global supply outlook.
Bearish Drivers: Brazil and Indonesia Lead the Oversupply Narrative
The primary catalyst for the decline is Brazil’s accelerating Robusta harvest. As of late June, 23.4% of Brazil’s Robusta crop had been harvested, with reports of 49% completion earlier in the month. The strong pace and high yields have injected significant volume into global markets. Adding to the pressure, Indonesia—another key Robusta producer—has begun releasing fresh supply, reinforcing oversupply concerns.
Although Arabica harvest progress was slightly delayed—Cooxupé, Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative, reported only 31% completion by June 27, compared to 42% last year—the bearish mood prevailed. The USDA projects Brazil’s total 2025/26 coffee output at 65 million bags (+0.5% YoY), with Robusta production rising 14.76% to 24.1 million bags, while Arabica falls 6.4% to 40.9 million bags. Favorable weather, especially in Minas Gerais where rainfall in June reached 714% of the historical norm, has further lifted crop prospects.
Global Outlook: Production Surplus Builds, But Stock Levels Remain Tight
Globally, the USDA forecasts coffee production to hit a record 178.68 million bags in 2025/26 (+2.5% YoY), including 81.66 million bags of Robusta (+7.9%). Consumption is estimated at 169.4 million bags, suggesting a surplus of 9.32 million bags. However, with global inventories still low at just 22.8 million bags—well below the long-term average—experts caution that sustained surpluses will be needed over multiple seasons to fully rebuild stock levels.
In the short term, the prospect of oversupply, led by Brazil and Indonesia, continues to weigh heavily on Robusta futures. Yet, tight inventories and climate-driven uncertainty in key producing countries like Vietnam could inject volatility, especially if production shortfalls materialise later in the year.
Speculative Positioning Adds Complexity to Robusta Price Narrative
Despite the prevailing bearish trend in Robusta coffee futures, speculative behaviour presents a more nuanced picture. According to the Commitment of Traders (CoT) report dated June 10, 2025, the Managed Money sector increased its net long position by 17.7%, reaching 3,506 lots. This shift suggests that not all investors are aligned with the prevailing downside momentum.
While the broader market narrative centers on “speculative selling” driving prices lower, the increase in long positions indicates that some sophisticated funds are engaging in opportunistic counter-trend strategies—buying into weakness in anticipation of a rebound. This divergence may reflect differing risk appetites or time horizons among investor classes, and highlights that speculative sentiment is not uniformly bearish.
In short, while Robusta prices remain under pressure due to abundant supply—particularly from Brazil and Indonesia—the CoT data reveals that parts of the market see current price levels as attractive entry points. This adds an undercurrent of speculative support that could limit further downside or trigger volatility if supply expectations shift.
What is the forecast for Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices in July 2025?
For July 2025, Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices are projected to experience a steady increase, potentially reaching between VND 115,000–116,000/kg. This upward trend is supported by a combination of strong global and local market fundamentals, including tight global supply, low Robusta inventories on the London ICE exchange, a stable USD/VND exchange rate, and firm speculative long positions.
- Tight global supply, with Brazil’s Robusta harvest progressing slowly.
- Low Robusta inventories on the London ICE exchange—at multi-week lows—are providing price support.
- A stable USD/VND exchange rate, which shields domestic prices from external currency pressure.
- Speculative long positions remain firm, reinforcing upward price momentum.
With London Robusta hovering around USD 4,689/ton and New York Arabica near 375 cents/lb, Vietnam’s coffee prices are expected to maintain upward pressure. Farmers and exporters should stay alert to global price movements and adjust selling strategies to capture peak margins.
What is the global Robusta coffee price forecast for July 7-14, 2025?
From July 7 to July 14, 2025, Robusta futures (RMU25 contract) are anticipated to trade within a consolidation range of USD 3,450–3,600/mt. Currently, prices are hovering around USD 3,670–3,690/mt, with identified support at USD 3,589/mt and resistance at USD 3,648/mt. Should prices break below the support level, they could potentially fall to USD 3,530/mt, whereas a rebound above resistance might lead to a climb towards USD 3,707/mt.
Despite recent weakness, the global Robusta market retains a bullish undertone due to:
- Slower Robusta shipments from Indonesia, tightening short-term supply.
- Continued speculative buying, especially following last week’s Arabica sell-off.
- Rising freight costs amid geopolitical tensions, adding upward pressure.
However, the rally faces headwinds:
- Exchange inventories of Robusta have climbed to multi-month highs.
- Forecasted production rebounds from Vietnam and Brazil in the 2025/26 crop year are capping gains.
The market remains in a transition phase, weighing short-term supply constraints against long-term recovery expectations. While a price rebound is possible, traders should anticipate volatility and prepare for potential corrections as new supply flows in.
Technical analysis suggests September Robusta (LRCU25) may hold near current levels (USD 3,677/mt) but is unlikely to break the USD 4,200–4,300/mt resistance zone without stronger bullish catalysts.
Arabica Market & Domestic Price Implications
September ICE Arabica futures are expected to trade in a narrow band of USD 2.75–2.85/lb, supported by Brazil’s seasonal harvest, low weather risks, and consistent demand from North America and Europe.
In Vietnam, domestic prices are forecast to remain high, around VND 95,800–96,400/kg, with modest gains tied to international trends. However, elevated domestic prices continue to challenge export competitiveness, as local quotes remain higher than international floor levels.
For a comprehensive analysis with full data tables and insights, refer to the full report:
