I. OVERVIEW OF MACRO PERFORMANCE AND GROWTH DRIVERS
Vietnam’s export performance in the first nine months of 2025 demonstrates a strong recovery after a volatile period. However, a deeper analysis shows that growth momentum remains heavily dependent on the FDI sector and high-tech product groups.
1.1. Overall Results (9M/2025)
Total merchandise export turnover in the first nine months of 2025 reached USD 348.74 billion, recording an impressive 16.0% year-on-year growth.
Notably, the trade balance continued to remain positive with a trade surplus of USD 16.82 billion.
1.2. Short-Term Dynamics (September 2025)
Export turnover in September 2025 reached USD 42.67 billion. However, the month-over-month (MoM) growth rate showed a slight slowdown:
- Overall exports decreased 1.7% compared to August 2025.
- Both key sectors recorded declines: the domestic economic sector down 5.5%, and the FDI sector down 0.6% month-over-month.
This mild contraction in September indicates that exports are facing external adjustment pressures — potentially due to rising logistics costs or order adjustments from major consumer markets.
1.3. The Dominant Role of the FDI Sector
Vietnam’s export growth and trade surplus are entirely driven by the foreign-invested (FDI) sector:
| Indicator | FDI Sector (incl. crude oil) | Domestic Sector |
|---|---|---|
| Export Value (9M) | USD 263.33 billion | USD 85.41 billion |
| Export Share (9M) | 75.50% | 24.50% |
| YTD Growth (9M) | 0.214 | 0.02 |
| Trade Balance (9M) | Surplus of USD 37.08 billion | Deficit of USD 20.26 billion |
II. IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS BY COMMODITY STRUCTURE
The export structure in the first nine months of 2025 shows a significant shift toward manufactured industrial goods, especially high-tech products.
2.1. Processed Industrial Goods (88.6% Share)
Processed industrial products reached USD 309.03 billion, accounting for 88.6% of total export turnover.
| Commodity | Value (USD) | Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Computers, electronic products & components | 77,485,468,217 | 45.90% |
| Phones & components | 43,592,198,707 | 4.10% |
| Machinery, equipment, tools & spare parts | 42,996,871,475 | 13.50% |
| Textiles & garments | 29,743,843,452 | 8.60% |
| Footwear | 17,792,211,976 | 7.40% |
| Other commodities | 16,352,695,443 | 17.30% |
| Vehicles & parts | 12,775,794,413 | 13.30% |
| Wood & wood products | 12,496,573,339 | 6.80% |
| Aquatic products | 8,169,380,026 | 13.00% |
| Coffee | 7,010,973,110 | 62.20% |
| Toys, sports equipment & parts | 6,549,296,307 | 134.60% |
| Fruits & vegetables | 6,131,323,223 | 8.70% |
| Cameras, camcorders & components | 5,862,649,805 | -4.60% |
| Plastic products | 5,495,473,366 | 13.00% |
| Iron & steel | 5,173,919,242 | -28.30% |
High-Tech Highlight: Computers, electronic products, and components have solidified their No.1 position with a dominant turnover of over USD 77.48 billion and an extraordinary 45.9% YTD growth. Together with phones and machinery & equipment, these form a “pillar trio” that accounts for nearly half of total exports.
Traditional Sector Highlight: Traditional export sectors such as textiles (USD 29.74 billion) and footwear (USD 17.79 billion) remain vital but recorded more modest growth rates (+8.6% and +7.4% YTD, respectively). Some categories witnessed breakthrough growth, notably toys, sports equipment & parts with +134.6% YTD (USD 6.55 billion), reflecting a strong rebound in global consumer demand.
2.2. Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishery Products (11.4% Share)
Agricultural, forestry, and fishery products (including fuels and minerals) accounted for 11.4% of total exports.
- Agricultural & forestry products: USD 29.51 billion (8.5% share).
- Fishery products: USD 8.17 billion (2.3% share).
- Fruits & vegetables: Remain a bright spot with USD 6.13 billion, up 8.7% YTD.
III. EXPORT MARKET ANALYSIS
Vietnam’s export markets remain highly concentrated in major partners such as the United States, China, and the EU, posing potential geopolitical and trade risks.
3.1. Key Export Markets
United States (US): Continues to be Vietnam’s largest export market, with a turnover of USD 112.8 billion in the first nine months. The U.S. mainly imports manufactured goods, textiles, footwear, and electronics. Vietnam’s trade surplus with the U.S. reached USD 99.1 billion.
China: Vietnam’s second-largest export market, but simultaneously its largest import source (USD 134.4 billion). As a result, Vietnam recorded its largest trade deficit of USD 84.8 billion with China.
European Union (EU): A strategic market boosted by the EVFTA. Exports to the EU have grown strongly, particularly in agricultural products.
IV. CONCLUSION AND STRATEGIC OUTLOOK
Vietnam’s exports in the first nine months of 2025 have established a solid growth foundation, achieving +16.0% YTD growth.
However, this stability relies heavily on two pillars: the FDI sector and high-tech manufacturing.
Strategic Challenges
High Dependency: Heavy reliance on the FDI sector (75.5% of exports) and high-tech goods (nearly 50% of total export value) exposes Vietnam to concentration risks.
Any disruption in global supply chains or decline in tech demand could have significant impacts.
Weak Domestic Competitiveness: The domestic sector grew only 2.0% YTD and recorded a trade deficit of USD 20.26 billion, indicating that Vietnamese enterprises’ internal growth momentum remains weak and requires stronger policy and structural support.
See more:
