Detailed Analysis of Vietnam’s Cashew Nut Exports to China (2015–2024)
Vietnam’s Cashew Nut Exports to China (2015–2024) (Customs Department data compiled by Vncommex)
China has consistently held its position as Vietnam’s second-largest cashew nut export market, just behind the United States. Before 2020, Vietnam almost entirely dominated China’s shelled cashew imports (HS code 080132), at one point controlling up to 97% market share. This dominance was supported by a shift in Chinese consumer behaviour—from viewing cashews purely as a luxury holiday gift to recognising them as a nutritious daily food, reflecting rising living standards and economic growth.
From 2019 onward, Vietnam’s exports to China experienced a rollercoaster of changes. In 2019, amid Sino-U.S. trade tensions, Vietnamese cashew exports to China surged 48% in volume. The growth continued into 2020, despite the pandemic, but was then hindered by logistics bottlenecks in 2021 and a 28% plunge in 2022 due to China’s Zero-COVID policy. Once China reopened in 2023, pent-up demand returned forcefully, sending Vietnam’s export turnover soaring 55% to $683 million, with momentum continuing into 2024, reaching $746 million.
Yet, behind the impressive numbers lies a strategic concern: Vietnam’s market share is slowly eroding despite higher export volumes. This shift is driven by China’s policy to reduce dependence on a single supplier. China is pursuing two strategies:
- Diversifying imports of finished cashew nuts, boosting the presence of Ivory Coast (10%), Myanmar (6.8%), and Tanzania (2%) in its market.
- Increasing imports of raw cashew nuts (unshelled), with an average of 10,000 tons/year, mainly from Mali, Togo, and Cambodia, to fuel its rapidly expanding domestic deep-processing industry.
A historic milestone occurred in early 2025, when China overtook the United States to become Vietnam’s largest cashew export market—driven by booming demand ahead of the Lunar New Year. In just the first four months of 2025, Vietnam exported 65,795 tons of cashews to China, generating $415 million, marking a 23.36% increase in volume and a 43.21% surge in value year-over-year.
This reflects not only increased consumption, but also a greater willingness among Chinese consumers to pay premium prices for high-quality cashews—especially as gifts and festive staples during the most important holiday of the year. As a result, China’s share of Vietnam’s total cashew export turnover has risen from 21.52% to 26%, a 5-point jump that signals a shifting centre of gravity in Vietnam’s cashew trade.
For a comprehensive analysis with full data tables and insights, refer to the full report: Vietnam Cashew Nuts Import–Export Market Report 2025
China’s Self-Sufficiency Strategy and the Emerging Challenge for Vietnam’s Cashew Industry
Beyond diversifying sources of finished cashew products, China is executing a deeper, long-term strategy: building a self-controlled raw material supply chain. Through direct investment in overseas farming and processing, Chinese firms have steadily reduced reliance on intermediary suppliers. The self-sufficiency rate for raw materials has grown from less than 5% in 2018 to 18% by 2023, and this upward trend is expected to continue.
This strategy follows two key models:
- “Grow in Africa + Process in China” – Chinese companies are investing heavily in processing facilities in the Ivory Coast, targeting capacities of up to 100,000 tons/year, cutting raw material costs by as much as 22%.
- The “backyard model” in Cambodia – In March 2025, a $12 million cashew processing plant with a capacity of 40 tons/day officially began operations in Cambodia, designed exclusively to serve the Chinese market.
Together, these efforts reflect more than commercial ambition—they demonstrate China’s strategic pursuit of food security and production autonomy. For Vietnam, this presents a dual challenge: not only is China reducing its dependence on Vietnamese cashew processors, but a direct competitor is emerging right next door in Cambodia.
In this new landscape, Vietnam can no longer rely solely on its role as the world’s cashew processing hub. To remain competitive and ensure long-term sustainability, the industry must transform itself into a provider of branded, premium-quality, and high-value-added products—shifting from quantity to quality and from processing to branding.
Conclusion
The period from 2015 to 2024 highlights the impressive resilience of Vietnam’s cashew exports to China, marked by spectacular growth figures and surges in demand. Alongside these opportunities, however, strategic challenges are emerging from the rise of new supply sources in Africa and Cambodia, as well as China’s long-term strategy for raw material self-sufficiency. At this critical crossroads, Vietnam’s cashew industry cannot rely solely on its role as the “world’s processing workshop” to sustain its leading position. To adapt, the industry must transition swiftly toward a more sustainable development model: building strong brands, enhancing quality, diversifying product lines, and moving into higher value-added segments. Only by doing so can Vietnam transform challenges into opportunities, maintain its central role in the global cashew supply chain, and consolidate its position in one of the world’s largest markets – China.
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