Vietnamese domestic coffee prices experienced significant volatility in early 2025. The year began with a strong upward trend, as prices in January reached VND120,000/kg. This momentum continued into February, with prices climbing to VND131,000/kg, marking a 9.17% increase month-over-month. The peak was observed in March 2025, when coffee prices hit a record high of VND135,400/kg, a 3.36% rise from February.
Following this peak, a downward trend emerged. By April 2025, domestic prices had fallen to VND127,000/kg, representing a 6.2% decrease from the previous month. This decline persisted into May, with prices reaching VND125,000/kg. A particularly sharp drop occurred from June 2025 onwards, as prices plummeted to VND99,000/kg, a substantial 20.8% reduction compared to May.
Between the beginning of May and the end of July, domestic coffee prices in Vietnam collectively decreased by nearly 28%. The lowest point was recorded on July 11th, with prices falling to VND92,500-92,600/kg. However, by the close of July 2025 (specifically July 27th), prices showed signs of stabilisation, trading around VND95,300-95,500/kg. This indicates a potential calming of the market after the steep decline.
Global Market Connection and Vietnam’s Competitiveness
The world coffee market has mirrored these fluctuations. Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange, for instance, experienced notable declines, including a significant drop of USD 146–161/ton on July 22nd. Conversely, some recent sessions in July (specifically July 23rd–25th) have shown a tendency for global coffee prices to rebound.
Currently, domestic coffee prices in Vietnam are about USD 0.28 per kilogram higher than the price of September 2025 futures contracts, indicating that investors are anticipating a decline in coffee prices in the coming months.
Climate Change Challenges and Production Forecast for Vietnamese Coffee
Climate change has significantly impacted the yield and productivity of Vietnam’s coffee industry. In the 2023–2024 crop year, Vietnam’s coffee production dropped considerably due to the effects of El Niño and a reduction in planted area caused by crop conversion. However, with heavy rainfall in 2024, coffee yields in Vietnam are expected to recover. According to the latest forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Vietnam’s coffee production in the 2024–2025 crop year is projected to reach 1.8 million tons (approximately 30 million bags), an increase of about 150,000 tons compared to the previous season.
The recovery in production across most major coffee-producing countries is exerting downward pressure on futures contract prices. Specifically, prices for September 2025, November 2025, and January 2026 futures contracts are all showing a steady declining trend. This suggests that during Vietnam’s harvest season in November–December 2025, domestic coffee selling prices will likely be lower than in the 2024 crop year.
According to a Reuters survey, Robusta coffee prices are forecast to end 2025 at around USD 4,200 per ton, down 28% from the closing price at the time of the survey (around February 2025). The primary reason for this price decline is the improved supply from major producers such as Brazil and Vietnam. Specifically, Vietnam’s Robusta coffee production is forecast to increase to 29 million bags in the 2024–2025 crop year (up from 28 million bags in 2023–2024), and may even reach 31 million bags in the 2025–2026 crop year.
Trend of fluctuation in Vietnamese coffee prices (blue: export price, red: domestic price)
Daily index prices and futures prices of global coffees (US cents/lb)
The global coffee market has demonstrated a striking divergence in price trends between its two primary varieties, Arabica and Robusta, over the past year (July 2024 to June 2025). This period has been characterised by robust demand and rising prices for Arabica, contrasted with a general decline in Robusta prices driven by improved supply.
Arabica Coffee: Surging Prices and Strong Demand
Arabica coffee prices have experienced a sharp and sustained increase during this period. Varieties such as Colombian Milds, Other Milds, and Brazilian Naturals have shown impressive gains, with some increases reaching up to 40%. The New York Stock Exchange price index for Arabica mirrored this trend, registering a significant 40.15% increase. This substantial appreciation in price reflects strong global demand for Arabica coffee and potential concerns regarding its supply.
Despite these elevated prices, Colombian Arabica coffee exports have shown remarkable resilience. Year-to-date figures from October 2024 to May 2025 indicate a 15.5% increase in exports, reaching 9.35 million bags compared to 8.09 million bags in the corresponding period last year. Furthermore, the share of Arabica coffee in total green coffee exports for the first eight months of the 2024/25 coffee crop year (to May 2025) rose from 60.8% to 62.9% compared to the same period in the previous year. These figures underscore a clear preference for Arabica coffee among global consumers, demonstrating inelastic demand even in the face of higher prices.
Robusta Coffee: Price Declines Amidst Supply Recovery
In stark contrast, Robusta coffee prices have generally trended downwards. Both the outright Robusta coffee prices and the London price index have seen declines of 8.62% and 5.53%, respectively. This downward pressure is primarily attributable to a significant recovery in output from key Robusta-producing nations:
- Vietnam: Production increased from 26.5 million bags (60kg) to 28 million bags (60kg).
- Indonesia: Output surged from 6.8 million bags to 9.3 million bags.
The notable production growth in these two major Robusta suppliers has effectively rebalanced the supply and demand dynamics within the Robusta market, leading to a moderation and subsequent decline in prices for this coffee variety. This illustrates the sensitivity of Robusta prices to supply-side improvements, especially from dominant producers.
2023/24 Production Overview: Arabica Leads Growth
Global coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year is estimated at 178 million bags, marking a 5.80% increase compared to the 2018/19 season. This growth was primarily spearheaded by Arabica production, which saw an impressive 8.80% rise to 102.2 million bags. In contrast, Robusta production recorded a more modest increase of 2.10%, reaching 75.8 million bags.
Regionally, Africa and South America exhibited substantial production growth, with increases of 12.10% and 9.80%, respectively. Conversely, production in the Caribbean, Central America & Mexico experienced a slight decline of 2.50%.
Looking ahead, global coffee production in the 2025/26 crop year is anticipated to reach a record 178.7 million bags, an increase of 4.3 million bags from the previous year. This projected growth is largely attributed to a robust recovery in production from Vietnam and Indonesia, alongside record output from Ethiopia.
Despite this burgeoning supply, global coffee consumption is also expected to reach an all-time high of 169.4 million bags. However, the increased production is projected to outpace consumption, leading to a forecast supply surplus of approximately 9.3 million bags in the 2025/26 marketing year. This potential surplus suggests a shift in market dynamics that could influence future price trends.
Global Coffee Inventory Challenges: A Paradox of High Prices Amidst Projected Surplus
Despite forecasts for a supply surplus in the 2025/26 crop year, the global coffee market is currently grappling with significant inventory challenges, which are paradoxically sustaining high prices. This situation underscores a critical disconnect between long-term production outlooks and immediate, available supplies.
Alarmingly Low Global Ending Stocks
Global ending stocks are projected to decrease by 6.6%, falling to a range of 20.87 to 22.8 million bags. This decline is particularly alarming as it represents the lowest level in 25 years on a stocks-to-use basis. This tight supply situation is the primary driver behind the persistent elevation of coffee prices. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) composite price index vividly reflects this pressure, having surged by over 90% in the past two years.
Arabica Stocks: Precarious Shortages
As of July 2025, certified Arabica stocks on the ICE Futures US exchange in New York have plummeted to just 806,062 bags, marking a three-month low. These stocks have been on a consistent downward trajectory throughout 2025, with a notable one-day drop of 34,000 bags in June, the largest single-day decrease since January. A significant portion of these certified stocks, 89.84% (724,193 bags), are held in warehouses across Europe, highlighting a geographic concentration of the remaining supply.
The precarious Arabica stock situation is further compounded by expiring contracts and traders’ anxieties regarding maintaining positions in near-delivery months. This has fueled persistent price volatility and prompted an unusually early rollover of contracts from July to September, a market phenomenon not witnessed in analysis since 1991.
Robusta Inventories Rise, Yet Prices Remain Pressured
In stark contrast to Arabica, certified Robusta inventories on the London exchange have experienced a substantial increase, reaching 6,882 lots (equivalent to 68,820 tonnes)—their highest level in a year. This surge is primarily attributed to the accelerated Brazilian Robusta harvest and the arrival of new-crop beans from Indonesia.
However, the significant disparity between the dwindling Arabica inventories and the growing Robusta inventories is exerting particular downward pressure on Robusta prices. As a result, September Robusta futures prices have fallen to a 14-month low.
Regional Stocks at Record Lows
Beyond the exchange-monitored inventories, green coffee stocks in major consuming regions are also at concerningly low levels:
- European Coffee Federation (ECF) stocks stand at just 7.07 million bags, approximately 5 million bags below their five-year average.
- Japan Coffee Association (JCA) stocks are similarly depleted at just 2.21 million bags, roughly 500,000 bags below their average.
The combination of persistently low global stocks and limited certified inventories on exchanges continues to be the dominant factor supporting high coffee prices, even in the face of a projected production surplus. This market behaviour suggests that immediate availability and short-term demand concerns are currently outweighing long-term supply forecasts.
Vietnam Coffee Exports in H1 2025: Surpassing Targets and Setting New Records
In the first six months of 2025, Vietnam’s total coffee exports reached approximately 995,000 tons, generating a turnover of over USD 5.5 billion. This significant figure officially surpasses the total export value for the entirety of 2024, which was USD 5.48 billion, thereby setting a new record for the industry. The average export price during this period reached an unprecedented high of an estimated USD 5,708.3/ton, representing a substantial 59.1% increase over the same period in 2024.
Compared to the first six months of 2024, coffee exports witnessed a 5.3% increase in volume and a dramatic 67.5% surge in value. Other reported figures also indicate a 6% increase in volume and a 69.36% rise in turnover, further underscoring the strong growth in overall value.
With this impressive growth momentum, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment forecasts that Vietnam’s coffee export turnover could reach USD 7.5 billion by the end of 2025, representing an increase of nearly 37% compared to 2024. This ambitious target reflects the industry’s strong performance and its growing contribution to the national economy, even though Vietnam’s global market share, while significant, might only account for approximately 7-8% of total coffee exports.
1. European Market: A Pillar of Vietnamese Coffee Export Success in H1 2025
Europe continues to solidify its position as Vietnam’s most significant coffee export market. In the first half of 2025, the continent accounted for approximately 39% of Vietnam’s total coffee export turnover, showcasing its sustained demand and the impressive growth of Vietnamese coffee, even amidst new regulatory challenges.
Key European Markets Driving Growth
Germany emerged as Vietnam’s largest coffee import market in the first six months of 2025, capturing over 15% of the country’s total export volume and turnover, specifically 16.3% of the market share according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment. Vietnam exported 149,543 tons of coffee to Germany, generating a remarkable turnover of $824.85 million USD, with an average price of $5,516 USD/ton. Compared to the first half of 2024, exports to Germany saw a 33.2% increase in volume, a sharp 115% surge in turnover, and a 61.5% rise in price. The export value to Germany in the first five months of 2025 alone saw an astounding 2.2-fold increase, highlighting this market’s exceptional breakthrough.
Italy ranked second within the EU, accounting for 7.9% of the market share. Vietnam exported 76,993 tons of coffee to Italy, equivalent to $409.22 million USD, at an average price of $5,315 USD/ton. While the export volume to Italy decreased by 11% compared to the first half of 2024, the turnover impressively increased by 48%, and the average price rose by 66.6%, reflecting the broader trend of rising global coffee prices. The export value to Italy in the first five months of 2025 increased by 45.1%.
Spain secured 7.4% of the market share. Vietnam exported 69,539 tons of coffee to Spain, reaching $403.85 million USD, with an average price of $5,808 USD/ton. Compared to the same period in 2024, export volume to Spain grew by 8%, turnover sharply increased by 71%, and prices rose by 58.3%. The export value to Spain in the first five months of 2025 increased by 55.8%. Vietnam has maintained its position as the largest coffee supplier to Spain since 2022, a leadership that continues to be consolidated.
Emerging and Significant Growth Markets
The United Kingdom recorded strong growth in the first six months of 2025, with a 95% increase in turnover and a 26.6% rise in output, reaching $128 million USD with an export volume of 21,000 tons. Although accounting for a smaller share of the market at 2.3%, the UK represents a highly promising market for Vietnamese coffee, particularly instant coffee, given its reputation as one of Europe’s largest instant coffee-consuming markets, alongside Russia.
Further contributing to Vietnam’s European success, Poland saw a remarkable 70% increase in volume and a 137% surge in value of Vietnamese coffee imports in the first half of 2025, totaling $91.4 million USD at 11,732 tons. Belgium also demonstrated significant growth, with a 34% increase in volume and a 114% rise in value, reaching $185 million USD at an output of 34,420 tons. Additionally, the Netherlands, a crucial coffee transit hub, experienced a 22% increase in volume and a 92% increase in value, amounting to $223 million USD at an output of 38,255 tons.
Challenges and Opportunities from the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) for Vietnamese Coffee
The implementation of the new EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) presents both significant challenges and substantial opportunities for the Vietnamese coffee industry. This regulation mandates that 100% of coffee products imported into the European Union must be fully traceable, requiring the provision of GPS coordinates or polygons for each production garden. Non-compliance, particularly in cases of documented deforestation or forest degradation linked to the product, will lead to severe consequences, including shipment recalls or refunds.
Despite the stringent nature of the EUDR, Vietnam has been classified as a “low-risk” country by the EU. This classification provides a significant competitive advantage, as it reduces the frequency of inspection for Vietnamese coffee export shipments to a mere 1%. This streamlined process significantly eases the administrative burden and potential delays for Vietnamese exporters compared to those from “standard” or “high-risk” countries, which face higher scrutiny levels (3% and 9% respectively).
2. America’s Market: Dynamic Shifts and Emerging Challenges
Mexico has emerged as a market with truly spectacular growth for Vietnamese coffee, exhibiting a 71.6-fold increase in export turnover within the top 15 largest export markets. This dramatic surge underscores the immense, previously untapped potential of the Mexican market for Vietnamese coffee producers.
Canada also recorded strong growth, with an estimated turnover of $80 million USD, an increase of approximately 300%. This sudden growth is partly attributed to “tariff evasion” activities in the second quarter of 2025, suggesting strategic adjustments by importers to navigate trade policies.
The United States remains a crucial traditional market, with a turnover of $299 million USD, marking a 72.4% increase in the first five months of 2025. The U.S. continues to be the primary destination for Vietnam’s deeply processed coffee, particularly instant coffee and specialty coffee, indicating a preference for value-added products.
Impact of US Tariff Policies
However, the U.S. market presents new challenges due to evolving tariff policies under the Trump Administration. In April 2025, an initial tariff of at least 10% was announced on nearly all imported goods, including coffee. More critically, on July 7, 2025, the U.S. government announced an increased specific tariff rate for Vietnam to 20%, effective from August 1, 2025. While this is lower than the originally planned 46%, it is still a significant tariff that could impact the price and competitiveness of Vietnamese coffee in the U.S. market during the latter half of 2025. Some U.S. importers are already seeking alternative suppliers, thereby intensifying competitive pressure on Vietnamese exporters.
3. African Market: Explosive Potential
The African market has shown explosive growth, with Algeria standing out as a bright spot. It recorded the most impressive growth among the top 15 largest export markets, reaching a turnover of $294 million USD and a phenomenal growth of 253.5%. The volume of coffee exported to Algeria reached nearly 56,800 tons, an increase of 123%. With a population of 46 million people and a high per capita coffee consumption rate (nearly 130,000 tons annually, predominantly Robusta), Algeria presents substantial potential for Vietnamese coffee in the North African market and serves as a strategic gateway into the broader Muslim market.
4. Asian Market: Stability and Strategic Importance
Within the ASEAN bloc, Vietnam earned $496 million USD from coffee exports, a 25.1% increase compared to the first five months of 2024. The Philippines emerged as the largest ASEAN market, with a turnover of $151.9 million USD, representing a 36.2% increase. The Philippines is also Vietnam’s largest agricultural export market in the region, with a total turnover of $1.12 billion USD.
Japan’s coffee import turnover from Vietnam increased by 58%, reaching $378.6 million USD. However, it is notable that the import volume decreased by 4.8%, from 63,000 tons to 60,000 tons, in the first six months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. This suggests that the increase in value is primarily driven by higher unit prices.
China recorded a 24% growth in turnover but a 1% decrease in output, reaching a turnover of $129 million USD after the first six months of 2025. Despite having the lowest growth rate among the top 15 markets, China is still considered a highly important potential market in the Northeast Asia region due to its vast population and evolving consumer habits, which are gradually shifting towards increased coffee consumption. This market presents long-term strategic opportunities as its coffee culture continues to deepen.
Vietnam’s coffee industry is recovering strongly in both output and exports, but faces new challenges from climate change, market volatility, and global trade regulations. Despite short-term downward pressure on prices due to rising global supply, Vietnam remains a key player in the Robusta market. To sustain growth, the industry must improve traceability, adapt to environmental standards, and focus on long-term competitiveness.
See more: Coffee Market Week 1/7 – 7/7/2025: Vietnam Grows Strongly, Globally Welcomes Surplus Wave
