How did Vietnam’s exports perform in the first nine months of 2025?
In the first nine months of 2025, Vietnam’s exports showed a robust recovery, reaching a total merchandise export turnover of USD 348.74 billion, an impressive 16.0% year-on-year growth. This strong performance also resulted in a positive trade balance with a surplus of USD 16.82 billion, though a closer look reveals that this growth is largely driven by the FDI sector and high-tech products.
1.1. Overall Results (9M/2025)
Total merchandise export turnover in the first nine months of 2025 reached USD 348.74 billion, recording an impressive 16.0% year-on-year growth.
Notably, the trade balance continued to remain positive with a trade surplus of USD 16.82 billion.
1.2. Short-Term Dynamics (September 2025)
Export turnover in September 2025 reached USD 42.67 billion. However, the month-over-month (MoM) growth rate showed a slight slowdown:
- Overall exports decreased 1.7% compared to August 2025.
- Both key sectors recorded declines: the domestic economic sector down 5.5%, and the FDI sector down 0.6% month-over-month.
This mild contraction in September indicates that exports are facing external adjustment pressures — potentially due to rising logistics costs or order adjustments from major consumer markets.
1.3. The Dominant Role of the FDI Sector
Vietnam’s export growth and trade surplus are entirely driven by the foreign-invested (FDI) sector:
| Indicator | FDI Sector (incl. crude oil) | Domestic Sector |
|---|---|---|
| Export Value (9M) | USD 263.33 billion | USD 85.41 billion |
| Export Share (9M) | 75.50% | 24.50% |
| YTD Growth (9M) | 0.214 | 0.02 |
| Trade Balance (9M) | Surplus of USD 37.08 billion | Deficit of USD 20.26 billion |
What types of products does Vietnam export the most?
Vietnam’s export commodity structure in the first nine months of 2025 highlights a significant focus on manufactured industrial goods, particularly high-tech products. These processed industrial goods accounted for a substantial 88.6% of total export turnover, reaching USD 309.03 billion.
2.1. Processed Industrial Goods (88.6% Share)
Processed industrial products reached USD 309.03 billion, accounting for 88.6% of total export turnover.
| Commodity | Value (USD) | Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Computers, electronic products & components | 77,485,468,217 | 45.90% |
| Phones & components | 43,592,198,707 | 4.10% |
| Machinery, equipment, tools & spare parts | 42,996,871,475 | 13.50% |
| Textiles & garments | 29,743,843,452 | 8.60% |
| Footwear | 17,792,211,976 | 7.40% |
| Other commodities | 16,352,695,443 | 17.30% |
| Vehicles & parts | 12,775,794,413 | 13.30% |
| Wood & wood products | 12,496,573,339 | 6.80% |
| Aquatic products | 8,169,380,026 | 13.00% |
| Coffee | 7,010,973,110 | 62.20% |
| Toys, sports equipment & parts | 6,549,296,307 | 134.60% |
| Fruits & vegetables | 6,131,323,223 | 8.70% |
| Cameras, camcorders & components | 5,862,649,805 | -4.60% |
| Plastic products | 5,495,473,366 | 13.00% |
| Iron & steel | 5,173,919,242 | -28.30% |
High-Tech Highlight: Computers, electronic products, and components have solidified their No.1 position with a dominant turnover of over USD 77.48 billion and an extraordinary 45.9% YTD growth. Together with phones and machinery & equipment, these form a “pillar trio” that accounts for nearly half of total exports.
Traditional Sector Highlight: Traditional export sectors such as textiles (USD 29.74 billion) and footwear (USD 17.79 billion) remain vital but recorded more modest growth rates (+8.6% and +7.4% YTD, respectively). Some categories witnessed breakthrough growth, notably toys, sports equipment & parts with +134.6% YTD (USD 6.55 billion), reflecting a strong rebound in global consumer demand.
2.2. Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishery Products (11.4% Share)
Agricultural, forestry, and fishery products (including fuels and minerals) accounted for 11.4% of total exports.
- Agricultural & forestry products: USD 29.51 billion (8.5% share).
- Fishery products: USD 8.17 billion (2.3% share).
- Fruits & vegetables: Remain a bright spot with USD 6.13 billion, up 8.7% YTD.
Which countries are Vietnam’s main export markets?
Vietnam’s export markets are primarily concentrated among key partners like the United States, China, and the European Union. This concentration, while driving significant trade volumes, also introduces potential geopolitical and trade risks due to heavy reliance on these major economies.
3.1. Key Export Markets
United States (US): Continues to be Vietnam’s largest export market, with a turnover of USD 112.8 billion in the first nine months. The U.S. mainly imports manufactured goods, textiles, footwear, and electronics. Vietnam’s trade surplus with the U.S. reached USD 99.1 billion.
China: Vietnam’s second-largest export market, but simultaneously its largest import source (USD 134.4 billion). As a result, Vietnam recorded its largest trade deficit of USD 84.8 billion with China.
European Union (EU): A strategic market boosted by the EVFTA. Exports to the EU have grown strongly, particularly in agricultural products.
What are the key challenges and future outlook for Vietnam’s exports?
While Vietnam’s exports achieved a solid 16.0% year-to-date growth in the first nine months of 2025, establishing a strong foundation, this stability is heavily reliant on two main pillars: the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) sector and high-tech manufacturing. This dependency presents strategic challenges for sustainable growth.
However, this stability relies heavily on two pillars: the FDI sector and high-tech manufacturing.
Strategic Challenges
High Dependency: Heavy reliance on the FDI sector (75.5% of exports) and high-tech goods (nearly 50% of total export value) exposes Vietnam to concentration risks.
Any disruption in global supply chains or decline in tech demand could have significant impacts.
Weak Domestic Competitiveness: The domestic sector grew only 2.0% YTD and recorded a trade deficit of USD 20.26 billion, indicating that Vietnamese enterprises’ internal growth momentum remains weak and requires stronger policy and structural support.
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